Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic

Partners involved

Opens internal link in current windowIASS, IMEMO, Foresight intelligence 

Months: 1-48

Deliverables associated

Opens internal link in current windowD5.20-D5.23


The Arctic is facing unprecedented environmental change. As the temperature warms and sea ice retreats, new economic opportunities are also emerging as natural resources become more readily accessible. Different commodities (oil, gas) are being developed in different locations in the Arctic. Each of these locations is characterised by unique environmental and social contexts, and the socio-economic and environmental outcomes for each development pathway will be unique. In this case study, we focus on the emerging opportunities and associated risks of development, and the potential social, economic and environmental impacts of energy resource development in the Arctic. Our work will provide valuable insight into the effects of resource extraction and climate change on the Arctic environment and the communities who live there, as well as into the interdependencies between the changing Arctic and stakeholders in non-Arctic regions (especially Europe).


This case study will analyse and evaluate the outcomes of numerous scenarios for resource extraction and environmental change in the Russian Arctic. Together with stakeholder groups, we will co-develop a suite of scenarios describing possible futures for the Yamal-Nenets region which incorporate cutting edge climate predictions with environmental, social and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. By building narratives around oil and gas development in the Yamal-Nenets region and evaluating socio-economic, climate, and enviornmental impacts, the scenarios developed by Blue-Action will help to facilitate regional and international decision-making processes which reflect the diverse interests, hopes, concerns, rights, and obligations of everyone involved.


  • Kathrin Stephen, IASS
  • Vilena Valeeva, IASS
  • Elena Nikitina, IMEMO
  • Johannes Gabriel, Foresight Intelligence

Dissemination materials

All available in open access in Opens external link in new windowZenodo Blue-Action community

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